A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
